Nationwide had house prices up 2.2% in the year to June. Lloyds, the same month, had them up 0.6%. The ONS, measuring to April, had 3.8%. Same market, three answers.
When I was trading, this used to bother people far more than it should. They wanted the number, the single true reading. But there isn't one. Each index measures a different slice at a different moment. Nationwide and Lloyds see their own mortgage approvals, so they catch the market months before it completes. The ONS uses completed sales at the Land Registry, so it's accurate but looking backwards. Rightmove is asking prices, which is what sellers hope for, not what buyers pay.
None of them is wrong. They're measuring different things and reporting them as if they were the same thing.
The useful habit isn't to pick your favourite index. It's to read them together and watch the direction of travel, not the decimal. Right now they're all saying roughly the same thing in different accents: modest growth, slowing, uneven by region. That's the signal. The exact percentage is noise.
Co-founder of Propalt and a property investor and developer for 20 years
